A few hours ago Max Fisher wrote:

How It Probably Started Ha’aretz’s Jack Khoury explains, “Since the end of the Second Lebanon War, the IDF has conducted patrols up to the international border, which in some places is on the Lebanese side of the border fence. It is possible that Tuesday’s incident was caused by one of the sides misidentifying the correct location of the border. In Lebanon, there was a report that Lebanese soldiers had demanded that Israeli troops leave the area before the exchange of fire took place. … ‘It started when the Israelis wanted to cut a tree down inside Lebanon,’ one security source in Lebanon said. ‘The Lebanese army fired warning shots at them and they responded by shelling.’”

Now here is a graphic of the blue line and the border fence (the Israeli security fence):

And now just think of Lebanese soldiers: they’re young, underpaid and uneducated. Someone should have seen this coming.

Update (4-8): The New York Times:

The United Nations peacekeeping force in South Lebanon, Unifil, said on Wednesday it had concluded that Israeli forces were cutting trees that lay within their own territory before a lethal exchange of fire with Lebanese Army troops on Tuesday, largely vindicating Israel’s account of how the fighting started.

NYT: U.N. Supports Israeli Account of Border Clash

Update (19-8): Better late than never. Haaretz: UN seeks to clearly mark Israel-Lebanon border, after deadly clash